A recent difference in difference study finds Florida's 2023 secondary school cell phone ban increased test scores by 0.6 percentiles; a smaller effect than I expected.

The Impact of Cellphone Bans in Schools on Student Outcomes: Evidence from Florida, National Bureau of Economic Research

In his conversation with Kenneth Rogoff, Tyler Cowen suggests an alternative to Fischer Random Chess: select starting positions from a database of equal positions 2 or 4 moves in. In Fischer Random, the back rank is randomized emphasizing over-the-board play over preparation. Cowen's alternative achieves the same goal, but results in more standard positions which observers can empathize with. An interesting idea I hadn't heard before.

Kenneth Rogoff on Monetary Moves, Fiscal Gambits, and Classical Chess (Ep. 241) , Conversations with Tyler

I was given How Not to Be Wrong for Christmas and am enjoying it so far. I've watched plenty of Numberphile and Veritasium and have read Stephen Pinker's similar book, Rationality, yet it introduces many topics I haven't come across before. One of which is St. Petersburg paradox:

1. I put $2 in a pot then flip a coin
2. If tails, the game ends and you win the money. If heads, I double the money
3. I flip the coin again. Repeat step 2

Clearly you should want to play this game, as you win no matter what. The question is, how much should you be willing to stake for the opportunity to play? Blog post with the answer and related thoughts here.

How Not to Be Wrong, Jordan Ellenberg

I could look at two identical candidates with similar career paths, and have no way of knowing that one of them built a jet engine in their living room. Their resumes are very similar and have no ability to choose between them. But a single photo of them in front of their own jet engine would tell me 95% of what I need to know to make a job offer. It would pretty much instantly put them on the top of the screening pile too

For Terraform, send us your one pagers. Ideally they will contain photos of awesome hardware you personally created, together with a brief and informative summary of how the project relates to your desired role with us

Maximizing Resume SNR, Casey Handmer

Culture matters, Dan Luu

Clark's central insight is that if you track the prevalence of a surname in an elite institution, it remains over- or under-represented much longer than traditional social mobility rates would suggest. The majority of the book is spent showing this holds regardless of time-period or location.

To explain this, Clark models status as latent variable. This variable is "indistinguishable" from genetics, depending only on that of the parents and randomness. The variable determines, again with random noise, observable outcomes like income or educational attainment. Traditional methods measure observable variables regressing to the mean, and therefore overestimate the pace of social mobility.

Clark concludes that status is mostly inherited, government efforts to increase social mobility have largely failed and as long as marriage is assortative (high-status people marry other high-status people) social mobility will remain slow.

The Son Also Rises, Gregory Clark

When we look at countries around the world, a year of education appears to raise an individual’s income by 8 to 11 percent. By contrast, increasing education across a country’s population by an average of one year per person raises the national income by only 1 to 3 percent. In other words, education enriches individuals much more than it enriches nations.

Correcting for underlying cognitive ability, Caplan estimates 60% or more of the education-wage premium is the sheepskin effect. In particular, he argues education signals intelligence, conscientiousness, and conformity. Firms pay this premium, so an open question on my mind is why probationary periods aren't more common.

The Case Against Education, Bryan Caplan
The World Might be Better off Without College for Everyone, Bryan Caplan